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IMF Eyes Revised Global Forecast, but Warns Trade Tensions Still Cloud Outlook
IMF Eyes Revised Global Forecast, but Warns Trade Tensions Still Cloud Outlook

Asharq Al-Awsat

time18-07-2025

  • Business
  • Asharq Al-Awsat

IMF Eyes Revised Global Forecast, but Warns Trade Tensions Still Cloud Outlook

The International Monetary Fund warned on Friday that risks related to trade tensions continue to cloud the global economic outlook and uncertainty remains high despite some increased trade and improved financial conditions. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the fund would update its global forecast later in July given "front-loading ahead of tariff increases and some trade diversion," along with improved financial conditions and signs of continued declines in inflation. In April the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of US tariffs on imports now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth. At the time, it cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Economists expect a slight upward revision when the IMF releases an updated forecast in late July. According to Reuters, Gopinath told finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies who met this week in South Africa that trade tensions continued to complicate the economic outlook. "While we will update our global forecast at the end of July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high," she said, in a text of her remarks. She urged countries to resolve trade tensions and implement policy changes to address underlying domestic imbalances, including scaling back fiscal outlays and putting debt on a sustainable path. Gopinath also underscored the need for monetary policy officials to carefully calibrate their decisions to specific circumstances in their countries, and stressed the need to protect central bank independence. This was a key theme in the G20 communique released by finance officials. Gopinath said capital flows to emerging markets and developing economies remained sluggish, but resilient, in the face of increased policy uncertainty and market volatility. For many borrowers, financing conditions remained tight. For countries with unsustainable debt, proactive moves were essential, Gopinath said, repeating the IMF's call for timely and efficient debt restructuring mechanisms. More work was needed on that issue, including allowing middle-income countries to access the G20's Common Framework for Debt Restructuring, she said.

Italy's Giorgetti Is Worrying About Fallout From the Trade War
Italy's Giorgetti Is Worrying About Fallout From the Trade War

Bloomberg

time18-07-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Italy's Giorgetti Is Worrying About Fallout From the Trade War

Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said he's concerned about potential damage to European economies from trade tensions and the weakening of the US dollar. 'We are worried about the impact of economic uncertainty and persistent commercial tensions on our economies,' Giorgetti said on Friday, speaking from South Africa where he is attending a Group of 20 meeting of finance ministers. 'The weakening of the US dollar is adding to the impact of higher tariffs.'

Australia's Treasurer Weighs Impact of Possible US Drug Tariff
Australia's Treasurer Weighs Impact of Possible US Drug Tariff

Bloomberg

time18-07-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Australia's Treasurer Weighs Impact of Possible US Drug Tariff

Australia is evaluating the impact of potential US tariffs of 200% on pharmaceutical imports, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said, while reiterating that his nation's subsidies for certain drugs are not up for negotiation. 'We're working through' how the potential tariff might work with the industry and 'the potential consequences of pharmaceuticals being caught up in these escalating trade tensions,' Chalmers said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from the Group of 20 meeting in South Africa on Friday.

Finance minister says tariffs not right tool to fix trade imbalances
Finance minister says tariffs not right tool to fix trade imbalances

Japan Times

time18-07-2025

  • Business
  • Japan Times

Finance minister says tariffs not right tool to fix trade imbalances

Japan told Group of 20 countries that tariffs aren't the right way to fix imbalances, and that countries facing such situations need to address them through domestic efforts, according to Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato. "Japan said that tariffs aren't really the right tool to fix excessive current accounts imbalances,' Kato told reporters Thursday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not attend the gathering. Kato spoke after the first day of the Group of 20 Finance Ministers and Central Governors' meeting near the city of Durban on South Africa's east coast. He was a lead speaker in several sessions, including a closely watched one on the global economy. The minister's comments come as the global economy braces for higher U.S. tariffs ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump — who has seen the tariffs as a way to fix the U.S.' trade deficits with various countries, and bring more manufacturing to America. Japan is already being hit by 25% levies on cars and steel, with across-the-board tariffs set to rise to 25% from 10% on Aug. 1 barring a deal. Many G20 participants expressed the view that the world economy hasn't seen the potential risks fully materialize as many might have expected, and market stresses appear to have eased somewhat, a Finance Ministry official accompanying Kato said. Still, the official said that many participants, including international organizations, emphasized the need to stay cautious about risks going forward. The yen has experienced increased volatility since April when Trump announced sweeping tariffs. Amid political uncertainty ahead of Japan's Upper House election, the currency is currently trading at its lowest level since before the trade war began. "Continued attention should be paid to excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market that's driven by factors including speculation,' Kato said, adding that existing understandings on currencies should be maintained. Months of negotiations between Japan's top negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, and Trump's aides have so far yielded little clear progress, with automotive tariffs remaining a major sticking point. The escalation of Trump's tariff policies is prompting many countries to explore stronger international cooperation. The European Union is considering coordinated measures with partners, including Canada and Japan, it has been reported. Kato said he emphasized at the meeting the significance of an open and free multilateral trade system and predictable economic management, though he said there were no specific talks on collaboration to counter the U.S.

Japan's Kato Says Domestic Reform the Best Way to Fix Imbalances
Japan's Kato Says Domestic Reform the Best Way to Fix Imbalances

Bloomberg

time17-07-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Japan's Kato Says Domestic Reform the Best Way to Fix Imbalances

Japan told the Group of 20 countries that tariffs are not an appropriate measure to fix imbalances, and that countries facing such situations need to address them through domestic efforts, said Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato. 'Japan said that tariffs aren't really the right tool to fix excessive current accounts imbalances,' Kato told reporters Thursday. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not attend the gathering.

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